Even as this primary season tests many of the traditional rules of presidential politics, Herman Cain?s political demise serves as a vivid reminder that the fundamental laws of campaign gravity still apply.
The contours of the playing field might have changed ? the campaign is now being contested mostly on the debate stage, cable television and the internet ? but the expectations of voters remain the same.
Continue ReadingCain, who exited the race Saturday over allegations of sexual impropriety, demonstrated that candidates still must have a grasp on the issues, possess some degree of political experience and retain a competent staff.
Antipathy towards Washington may be soaring, but outsider status isn?t sufficient by itself to overcome deeper flaws.
In fact, GOP primary voters are indicating that they?d prefer a insider who?s competent than someone from outside the establishment who may not be up to the task of taking on President Obama.
There?s a reason why Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are the favorites in the final weeks before voting begins, and Cain is returning home to Georgia.
Romney has twice been tested in statewide campaigns by an exacting Boston press corps and ran the presidential gauntlet four years ago. Gingrich first ran for Congress during the Ford administration ? he lost twice before finally winning his seat ? and has been subjected to arguably as much scrutiny as any other modern political figure who hadn?t previously sought the White House. Both candidates are deeply versed on the affairs of state and have confronted major political challenges that steeled them for this moment.
Of course, an out-of-the-blue sex scandal would be difficult for any candidate, rookie or canny veteran, to survive. But Cain?s inept handling of it, combined with his staff?s malpractice,, ensured his fate.
?The process has consistently worked in both parties,? said Steve Schmidt, who helmed John McCain?s campaign four years ago. ?Nobody who is not prepared to be president of the United States has made it through this process. When you look at the field now, it has narrowed to two people who are unquestionably qualified to be president ? and all the people who are likely to be on next season?s ?Dancing with the Stars? have fallen away.?
For all the talk about how much the tea party-infused Republican Party of 2011 wants a leader from beyond the political establishment, most Republican primary voters appear focused on only one objective in determining the nominee: who can beat Obama.
And there?s an important distinction between making a statement about party purity in a downballot contest and picking a president.
?In 2010, it was fun to be an anti-establishment Republican and make a point by rallying around unelectable candidates like Christine O?Donnell and Sharron Angle, but the stakes are higher and therefore electability does play much more of a factor,? said a GOP operative whose current post prevents him from speaking on the record. ?So while it is fun to flirt with a [Michele] Bachmann or Cain, voters are not going to send an unproven entity into the Obama wood-chipper.?
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